Robust RB Warning: This Ain't 2018
2015 is widely known as the year of the Wide Receiver. It was the perfect storm of an influx of receiver talent landing on teams with bad defenses and no target compeition. At the same time you had multiple 1st round running backs that either hit a cliff or suffered a major injury, leading to Devonta Freeman finishing as the RB1 that year. This had major effects iin the fantasy football which lead to Zero RB growing widly popular. The thought was that we had never seen this many talented WRs and that this was the future of the league. In 2016 zero RB still worked but not as well as Lev'eon Bell and David Johnson were a huge strategic advantage. This same thing could be happening with running backs.
| Year | RBs over 21 ppg |
| 2015 | Freeman 21.4 |
| 2016 | Bell 26.4, Johnson 25.5, Elliott 21.7 |
| 2017 | Gurley 25.6, Bell 22.8 |
| 2018 | Gurley 26.6, Barkley 24.1, McCaffrey 24.1, Kamara 23.6, Gordon 23, Elliott 21.9, Conner 21.5 |
| 2019 | McCaffrey 29.4 |
2018 was unlike anything we have seen in recent memory in terms of running back production with 7 running backs finishing above 21 ppg in ppr. Typically there are only 2 or 3 that finish there. For context, as good as Dalvin Cook was in 2019 finishing as RB2, he would have been RB8 in 2018.
2018 Top 8 RBs
| Player | PPR PPG | Carries | Targets | Opportunity Share |
| Todd Gurley | 26.6 | 18.3 | 5.8 | 86.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 24.1 | 16.3 | 7.6 | 80.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 24.1 | 13.7 | 7.8 | 82.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 23.6 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 58.7 |
| Melvin Gordon | 23.0 | 14.6 | 5.5 | 63.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21.9 | 20.3 | 6.3 | 90.1 |
| James Conner | 21.5 | 16.5 | 5.5 | 83.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 20.9 | 16.5 | 3.2 | 80.9 |
2018 was the equally perfect storm for running backs. The top guys were getting a 70% opportunity share with no real threat behind them. They were also the best 3rd down option on the team as well which lead to all of them seeing over 5 targets per game. If you didn't have 2 of these guys on your team there was very little chance of you winning as they were such an advantage over the other running backs.
2019 Top 8 RBs
| Player | PPR PPG | Carries | Targets | Opportunity Share |
| Christian McCaffrey | 29.4 | 17.9 | 8.9 | 91.5 |
| Dalvin Cook | 20.9 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 63.1 |
| Aaron Jones | 19.7 | 14.8 | 4.5 | 62.2 |
| Derrick Henry | 19.6 | 20.2 | 1.7 | 81.4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 19.5 | 18.8 | 4.5 | 77.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 19.3 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 46.0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 18.8 | 16.7 | 5.8 | 88.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | 17.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 66.0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 17.3 | 17.7 | 6.7 | 91.7 |
This has lead to robust RB taking over and we might still be chasing 2018. Overalll the running back scoring came down last year outside of McCaffery who had one of the best seasons in history. Running back scoring was very condensed at the top with 7 guys averaging between 20 -17 . In addition David Johnson and Kenyon Drake both average 19 ppg when they were starting for Arizona. Even Miles Sanders averaged 19 ppg once he took over as the starter in Philadelphia.
The biggest difference seems to be the running back targets and diminshing opportunity shares. We can look back at the targets and see some factors that changed. We saw a return to smashmouth football with a few teams, mainly Vikings and Titans. We also saw scheme changes with Aaron Jones and Ezekiel Elliot which lead to their target shares. Then the guys who were getting the targets like Kamara and Ekeler, ended up in committees and did not see the opportunity share necessary to make it into that top tier. Going into 2020 there is more competition for alot of guys, Maddison, Pollard, Dillon all are threats to get opportunities this year.
Now what is different this year. Is there anyone outside of McCaffery and Barkey that you can be confident will get 18+ carries and 5+ targets a game? If not we are likely going to see something similar with alot of running backs finishing in the same range of each other. And if that's the case, don't go chasing running backs early as you can get similar production with 3rd and 4th round running backs.
