Fade Devonta Smith in Rookie Drafts
The nfl draft darling of 2021. Devonta Smith, the HEISMAN Winner from the powerhouse Alabama. Elite College production in the toughest conference, top tier draft capital for a WR. The vividness bias is so strong it's forcing people to view him through best case scenario lenses. I was fading Smith before the draft and nothing has changed.
Physical Weaknesses
At the end of the day this is fantasy football. Fantasy football is about scoring fantasy points. How does Devonta Smith score fantasy points? His size removes him from the dominant X receiver role, can't beat up corners and make contested catches over defenders. There were questions about his speed and he didn't test. He could be fast but he didn't have the reputation of a speedster. Most don't consider him a hollywood brown, desean jackson, john brown field sttrecher type of receiver . So we don't have big plays, we don't have contested red zone receptions, which means he has to be a slot monster. Now how good can he be in the slot? Possibliy very good, except he isn't breaking tackles from NFL corners and linebackers. Yes this is where the BMI matters. So you aren't looking at him as a YAC monster like Golden Tate or DJ Moore has been out the slot. In terms of fantasy points you are going to need a ton of receptions in order for him to return value. This leads do the durability issue, if he is getting 7-10 receptions a game in the slot how long will he last.
Best Comparable Player
My best comp is Dede Westbrook. He was a heisman finalist. He finished 4th behind Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. Even though he didn't win the award I think performance wise they are comparable. At 6'0 178 lbs he is still 12 pounds heavier and at his pro day was dissappointing in every area except his 40 yard dash at 4.39. He was also comp'd to Marvin Harrison coming out (red flag), as his in ability to make contested catches and win off the line was a concern. He fell in the draft due to character concerns. In training camp the coach noted that he was struggling with press coverage. He eventually got his chance to start in 2018 and 2019. During this time he was a low-end WR2, averaging just under 11 fantasy ppg in ppr and only had 2 top 10 weeks. To be fair he didn't have the best quaterback play but this is the most likely path I see for Smith given his limited ways to score fantasy points and his situation.
Team & Scheme Fit
Everyone seems to love his landing spot. The 1st issue is Dallas Goedert. Slot receviers and tight ends tend to operate at the same level on the field. This is why you rarely see a slot receivers and tight ends fantasy relevant on the same team unless one or the other operates on the outside as well. However this is a new offense so maybe it won't be as tight-end focused.
Then there is the Jalen Hurts issue. He displayed accuracy concerns in his few starts and was in the top half for air yards per attempt. This makes sense, as mobile quarterbacks are able to buy more time and throw farther down field. The ideal QB for a Devonta Smith is a accurate pocket passer like Brees or Rivers. Even a ok pocket passer like Goff but one could argue this is one of the least ideal quarterbacks for smith to be paired with. If that wasn't enough there is the new offensive scheme from Coach Nick Sirianni. Coming from the colts he is expected to be alot more run heavy than Doug Pederson was.
There is alot to overcome for Smith to justify a 1st round rookie pick. Outliers happen, Antonio Brown, Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison and Chad Johnson all smaller guys who weren't necessarily speedsters but elite wide receivers. I think this leads to fantasy wanting, if you see a guy who needs to be an outlier to succeed, its probably best to assume they aren't.
